A 10-year view.
Based on recent trends we offer a 10-year projection on direct offshore production of U.S. print consumption.
Our view is that total direct U.S. printing imports, which totaled over $4.9 billion in 2005 may grow to around 12~15 billion in 10 years or by 2015. This projection is based on a 10% growth rate, which is above recent growth rates. This amount would probably comprise about 6%-7% of total U.S. print consumption in 2015 given recent trends in overall growth.
In isolation the outlook for direct printed imports from china is for the total volume to grow from $1.23 billion in 2005 to perhaps around $10-12 billion in 10years (2015). This growth assumes that almost 25% growth rate from 2004 to 2005 will continue. At that level, Chinese printed imports would comprise just over5% or so of total U.S. print consumption in 2015.
As can be seen in the above projection, most of the growth in Chinese printed imports would be at the expense of printed imports from other countries as Chinese print replaces print from Canada, Mexico, the United Kingdom, and other countries.
There is also counter-trend of increased U.S. printing exports to countries such as Canada and Mexico for various reasons including favorable changes in exchange rates, increased productivity of U.S. printers, and increased numbers of Spanish-speaking managers in U.S. printing plants.
The bottom-line from these projections is that the vast majority of print consumed in the United States will continue to be produced in the United States barring some major unforeseen change in circumstances. This projection is meant as a “ballpark” estimate only with the objective of showing how even with rapid growth, offshore print production should remain a relatively small proportion of total U.S. print production.
